/ Modified aug 20, 2019 4:34 p.m.

Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally in new poll

It is the first time either candidate's lead has been outside the margin of error in the race for U.S. Senate.

Mcsally kelly Republican Martha McSally, left, and Democrat Mark Kelly.
Gage Skidmore/Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally 46-41 in the latest poll by OH Predictive Insights.

The poll has a 4 point margin of error, and represents the first time either candidate's lead has been outside the margin of error.

When you look at the polling numbers from individual counties, Noble said the data becomes more interesting.

"Kelly is winning in Maricopa County by 9 points over McSally," said Noble.

The latest voter registration numbers from the Arizona Secretary of State's office shows Republicans have a big advantage in voter registration in Maricopa County.

In Pima County, Kelly's lead in 14 points. In Pima County, Democrats lead Republicans in registration.

McSally has 95% name recognition, according to Noble. Kelly is lagging in that area with a third of those polled still not knowing who he is.

Even though Election Day is more than a year away, campaigns can still learn a great deal from the poll.

"Arizona is actually a battleground state for the presidential election, which really has not been the case historically," said Noble.

The race could also determine control of the Senate, according to Noble.

He also pointed out that an economic downturn could have a large influence on the outcome of Arizona's senate race.

He also said when his data is combined with a look at precinct-level election results from the 2018 senate election it sends a message.

"Basically, where the GOP is hurting right now is among independent voters, among suburban voters and then also Hispanics and 18 to 34-year-olds," Noble said.

Arizona's 2018 senate election was the most expensive race in state history. It was the fourth-most expensive race in the nation.

By posting comments, you agree to our
AZPM encourages comments, but comments that contain profanity, unrelated information, threats, libel, defamatory statements, obscenities, pornography or that violate the law are not allowed. Comments that promote commercial products or services are not allowed. Comments in violation of this policy will be removed. Continued posting of comments that violate this policy will result in the commenter being banned from the site.

By submitting your comments, you hereby give AZPM the right to post your comments and potentially use them in any other form of media operated by this institution.
AZPM is a service of the University of Arizona and our broadcast stations are licensed to the Arizona Board of Regents who hold the trademarks for Arizona Public Media and AZPM. We respectfully acknowledge the University of Arizona is on the land and territories of Indigenous peoples.
The University of Arizona