/ Modified sep 19, 2016 8:28 a.m.

Latino Voters Could Turn Elections, if They Vote

Turnout doesn't match population growth in Arizona; young voters hard to capture.

Latino Vote Ipad

In a state where one-third of residents are Latinos, candidates are searching for ways to connect with the formidable demographic.

Though Arizona is fourth in the nation by proportion of Latino population, voter turnout is still low. Candidates have been trying to turn that around with Spanish-language ads and phone banks that target the group.

A recent poll from a group called Latino Decisions found that nine out of 10 Latinos reported they plan to cast ballots in November.

Not everyone is convinced this will be the case.

“It think it is a classic situation of intent and turning that into actual behavior,” said John Garcia, a University of Arizona expert on minority group political behavior.

“Clearly, turnout has been going up among Latinos, but it is clearly a lag with other voters.” Still, he said, “there is clearly interest.”

The same poll found that Latino voters nationally considered the economy and jobs as top issues, while Arizona Latinos said immigration was the most important.

Spanish-language broadcaster Raul Aguirre says immigration and the economy are not the only issues Latino voters should be concerned about. He is taking to the airwaves in Tucson, Phoenix and the Southwest to urge Latinos to focus on the environment.

Aguirre rejects reactions that paint the environment as an atypical issue of importance to Latinos.

“In California, the Latino vote was instrumental in passing a lot of the protections that now exist in that state for the environment,” he said. “So we know that Latinos … while they are preoccupied with the economy, we are also preoccupied with the environment, particularly water.”

Regardless of the issue, Latinos represent a potent voting bloc, and one that is fast growing.

“The growth of the Latino electorate, I think is now going to be like 14 percent. It is at a rate … where the other electorate is in fact declining because of age and other factors,” said the UA’s Garcia.

The polling group behind the survey said the reported enthusiasm of Latino voters is mitigated by another sentiment: that campaigns are not reaching out to them. Gabe Sanchez, of Latino Decisions, says the situation is more nuanced than it might seem at first.

“It is a sophisticated approach. It is not just ensuring that we have Latino-focused outreach, but that speaks to them bilingually, ideally, as well as across the issues that they think are important, but also how that varies across subgroups - particularly on age,” Sanchez said.

Sanchez points to the youthfulness of the Latino-voting-age population and what it takes to reach younger voters.

“Given how large a ratio the Latino millennial population is among the overall electorate, it is also important we look at how to reach those folks, and that is overwhelmingly through their smart phones.”

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